The 70% Solution
April 12th, 2008
Last week, I shared with you The Greatest Life Lesson I Learned From Playing Poker: Make the best decision in the moment, and then move on. No regrets if it turns out wrong - it’s just a learning opportunity.
Today, I’d like to take it a bit further.
Since you’re reading this blog, chances are you are a left-brained intellectual kind of guy, like me. We like to have things figured out before taking action. Sometimes even too much.
Long time ago, there was a rabbit, a turtle, and a left-brained intellectual guy. The rabbit is like “Hey, guys, I can beat you in a race.” The turtle is like “Alright! Come on, I can take you any day!” And the intellectual guy is like “Uh I’m not sure…” So the rabbit goes “It’s on!” and starts running. And you know how it goes. The rabbit runs to the finish line, then falls asleep before it, the turtle walks by and wins. Meanwhile, the intellectual guy is sitting at the start going “Oh I’m not sure this is a good idea, should I run? I mean, the rabbit will beat me anyway, but then the turtle is also racing, maybe something will happen to the rabbit, but I don’t want to look like a fool if nothing does, oh I’m not sure I should run…”
We intellectual guys like to be really certain about making the right decision. So we delay the decision, and delay it again. We procrastinate, wanting to be 95% sure instead of 90% sure. Meanwhile, others are taking action, and achieving plenty of success, while we sit around gathering more information. We can’t even outrun a bloody turtle!
We need to take action! Of course, we need to gather information and prepare beforehand. But how much information is enough?
The best way of summing it up comes from a newsletter by Dr. Paul:
I was talking with a friend who had been in the Marines.
We were talking about how it can be so difficult to get a guy to make the right decision in his life. I know so many guys who agonize and agonize over the major ones when its time to get exclusive with a woman or even marry her, when its time to cut your losses and move on with a career thats just plain bad for you and doesnt treat you right, or what to do with money in building your life.
He said, Um, that doesnt happen to a Marine, because we have the 70% Solution.
Needless to say, my curiosity was peaked.
He went on to tell me that when there is a military operation going down, if the guys on the ground are faced with a difficult decision and wait around for a 100% CERTAINTY of a decision being the right one, they might be waiting FOREVER.
And that is DEADLY when lives are at stake.
He said that the general rule is that if a soldier is 70% or more certain of the situation, he needs to go ahead and MAKE THE DECISION based on that percent amount, and commit to the action he sees as best at the time.
This saves lives and works out the best. When mistakes are made some of the time (and most often they are not, or are minimal), the bad results can be reviewed and improved on next time.
By the way, if you’re a guy, I really encourage you to click that link above and sign up for Dr, Paul’s newsletter. It’s great stuff.
A marine can be 70% certain about making the right decision because he has excellent military intelligence working for him. He has satellites, radars and scouts. You have an equivalent - books, blogs, and experienced friends.
So here’s how you use the 70% solution:
1. Gather relevant information
This means reading up on the topic, or asking more experienced people for help deciding.
2. Once you’re about 70% certain, decide on the next action
The next action needs to be a clear physical step to take. Bad example: “create a new product line” - not a clear physical step. Instead: “Call Jane to set up a meeting to brainstorm new product line ideas” - the phone call is the next physical action.
And finally…
3. Take action!
April 12th, 2008 at 17:10
Thanks. Once i someone told me that the best is enemy of the optimum, so i guess if 70% is the best we can expect for the moment we should go for it. It’s like buying a computer, one can’t ever get the latest new model, or you just don’t ever buy any.
My blog is at http://paulo-ppereira.blogspot.com/
April 13th, 2008 at 11:03
awesome!
April 14th, 2008 at 0:40
Awesome post. Your blog is highly insightful and always an enjoyable read.
April 14th, 2008 at 15:53
I can’t help it. Congratulations for this excellent post.
April 15th, 2008 at 7:39
I was 70% sure I wanted to leave a comment so here goes… Great post. I’ve signed you up to my reader on Google. I’ll try to check back often.But at least I’m not a “lurker”
April 15th, 2008 at 13:05
Hi Vlad,
nice posting.
If you haven’t done already read Gary Klein’s “Sources of power - How people make decisions”. It will forever cure anybody from the idea of being able to wait too long before making a deciscion and taking action.
April 15th, 2008 at 14:17
Hi Vlad.
Great post there.
Heard you up to great things, I’ll be happy to hear some from you.
I’ve read a great article some time ago about decision making(I’m horrible at making decisions).
anyway, I can’t find it right now but I’ll be sure to give a link if I do.
Keep up the great job!
April 15th, 2008 at 15:04
@paulo: Nice quote. It pretty much sums up why perfectionism sucks. You can do one thing perfectly, or a dozen things well, in the same amount of time.
@mikael, @itdaniher, @tedel, @eshez: Cheers! I`m glad you guys like it.
@mark: lol, I’m 70% sure I want to reply :p. By the way, you don’t need to check back often, I post exactly once a week, every saturday.
April 15th, 2008 at 22:39
Just wanted to say that i’m a left brained chick not a guy!
but that was a fab post, you described me to a T - sometimes i can’t even do the washing without agonising over where to start!!!